Data shows Bitcoin traders cutting short positions and going long despite concerning US macroeconomic data emerging. Is a rally toward $82,000 next?

Top traders boosted their Bitcoin long-to-short ratios, strengthening the $76,000 support floor.

Macroeconomic pressures and persistent Bitcoin ETF outflows are capping immediate Bitcoin breakout potential to $82,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with $78,000 on Thursday but failed to sustain its bullish momentum after a disappointing outlook from US retailer Walmart and growing signs of a more restrictive US monetary policy. Despite weakening macroeconomic conditions, professional Bitcoin traders increased their bullish exposure. Is a rally to $82,000 the next step?

Top traders’ Bitcoin long-to-short position at Binance & OKX. Source: CoinGlass

Top traders’ long-to-short ratio jumped to its highest level in 2 weeks, indicating growing confidence in the $76,000 support level. At Binance, the ratio remained near 8% favoring longs (buy) for three days, while traders at OKX reduced their shorts (sell) between Wednesday and Thursday. Still, in absolute terms, the long-to-short indicator remains neutral.

Part of this lack of confidence can be pinned to worsening economic growth perspectives. Walmart (WMT US) saw its shares decline 7% after issuing weak 2027 guidance due to persistently high oil prices. Walmart CFO John Furner said low-income consumers are “navigating financial distress.” The company acts as a proxy for US retail data due to its massive $178 billion quarterly sales.

The prolonged war in Iran and the subsequent partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz have kept crude Brent oil prices sustained above $95 for the past month. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has less room to maneuver due to this upward inflationary pressure. Traders are now anticipating interest rate hikes, marking a complete turnaround from the previous month’s expectations.

FOMC interest rate target probabilities for Sept. 2026. Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

The implied odds of interest rate hikes by September, based on government bond futures markets, have jumped to 37%, up from 0% one month prior. Thus, regardless of the strength of the S&P 500 Index, investors anticipate accelerated growth in the monetary base, as higher interest rates negatively affect the $39 trillion US government debt.

Bitcoin/USD at Coinbase vs. Bitcoin/USDT at major exchanges. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

The Bitcoin price at Coinbase traded at a 0.10% discount relative to Bitcoin prices at major exchanges quoted in USDT. This negative Coinbase Bitcoin premium is typically associated with weak institutional demand, which aligns with the $2.07 billion net outflows from US-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since May 12.

Related: Chance of new Bitcoin lows ‘extremely slim’ as long-term holders’ supply tops 15M BTC

Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate has maintained neutral levels since Monday, reversing the trend from the prior week. The current 7% rate is far from being bullish, but it marks a complete turnaround from May 14 when shorts (sellers) paid 13% to keep their positions open.

Given the uncertain perspectives for global economies, the odds of a sustained Bitcoin bull run to $82,000 in the near term appear low. Still, the reduction in top traders’ short positions and a balanced perpetual futures funding rate indicate that bulls are gradually building confidence in the $76,000 support level.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-longs-soar-despite-weak-us-macroeconomic-data-is-82k-btc-next?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound